Paris Yank

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====== Should I Stay or Should I Go? ======
//A Practical Guide to Emergency Decision-Making//

> "Should I Stay or Should I Go?
> "If I go, there will be trouble
> "And if I stay it will be double."
> — The Clash, 1982 (([[https://youtu.be/xMaE6toi4mk?si=3LZs66duvt0zRxp_|The Clash, "Should I Stay or Should I Go"]], //Combat Rock//, CBS Records, 1982.))

This guide helps you make one of the most critical decisions in any emergency: whether to **shelter in place** or **evacuate**. This decision must be correctly — and making it //early// — can save your life and the lives of those around you.
===== Table of Contents =====

  - [[#the_core_decision|The Core Decision]]
  - [[#types_of_emergencies|Types of Emergencies]]
  - [[#the_decision_framework|The Decision Framework]]
  - [[#factors_to_evaluate|Factors to Evaluate]]
  - [[#if_you_stay_sheltering_in_place|If You Stay: Sheltering in Place]]
  - [[#if_you_go_evacuation_planning|If You Go: Evacuation Planning]]
  - [[#special_populations|Special Populations]]
  - [[#communications_and_information|Communications and Information]]
  - [[#after_the_emergency|After the Emergency]]
  - [[#references|References]]


===== The Core Decision =====

The stay-or-go decision is rarely made in a calm, well-lit room with plenty of time. More often, it happens under stress, with incomplete information, possibly at night, and with dependents relying on you. This is why **the decision must be planned in advance**, not improvised in the moment. ((FEMA, //Are You Ready? An In-Depth Guide to Citizen Preparedness//, FEMA B-526, 2004, p. 12.))

<note important>
**The Golden Rule of Emergency Decision-Making:** A plan made today, even an imperfect one, is worth more than a perfect plan made under duress tomorrow. Prepare your decision criteria now, before you need them.
</note>

The two options are:

^ Option ^ Definition ^ Core Risk ^
| **Shelter in Place** | Remain in your home or current location, using it as a protective barrier | Being trapped, cut off, or overwhelmed if the threat reaches or surrounds you |
| **Evacuate** | Leave the area entirely, moving to a pre-determined safer location | Being caught in the open, on clogged roads, or unprepared away from home |

Neither option is universally correct. The right choice depends on **the nature of the threat**, **your location**, **your resources**, and **your personal circumstances**.

-----

===== Types of Emergencies =====

Different emergencies have different default postures. Understanding the type of emergency is the first step in your decision.

==== Weather Emergencies ====

^ Emergency ^ Default Posture ^ Notes ^
| Hurricane / Typhoon | **Evacuate** (if in flood zone or Zone A/B) | Storm surge is the leading killer; distance from coast matters enormously ((National Hurricane Center, //Tropical Cyclone Climatology//, NOAA, 2023.)) |
| Tornado | **Shelter in Place** | No time to evacuate; go to lowest interior room immediately |
| Blizzard / Ice Storm | **Shelter in Place** | Roads become impassable; home is safer than car |
| Wildfire | **Evacuate early** | The single greatest mistake is waiting too long ((Cal Fire, //After Action Reports: Camp Fire//, California Department of Forestry, 2019.)) |
| Flash Flood | **Evacuate immediately** | Never shelter in a flood-prone structure; never drive through floodwater |
| Earthquake | **Shelter in Place** (during), assess after | Drop/Cover/Hold On during; then assess structural damage |
| Extreme Heat | **Shelter in Place** (with cooling) or go to cooling center | Power outage changes this calculus dramatically |

==== Social Unrest / Civil Emergency ====

Social unrest, civil disturbance, or breakdown of civil order presents a more complex decision matrix because the threat is mobile and unpredictable. ((DHS, //Civil Unrest Preparedness for Households//, Department of Homeland Security, 2020.))

<note>
In cases of civil unrest, your **home's defendability, your neighborhood's vulnerability, and your ability to remain inconspicuous** are all relevant factors. A quiet rural home and a ground-floor urban apartment present very different risk profiles.
</note>

  * **Stay** if: Your home is secure, you have supplies, the unrest is localized elsewhere, travel routes are dangerous
  * **Go** if: Unrest is in your immediate area, authorities order evacuation, your home is not defensible, you have a secure destination

==== Other Emergencies ====

^ Emergency ^ Default Posture ^ Key Factor ^
| Chemical / Hazmat spill | **Shelter in Place** or **Evacuate** | Depends entirely on wind direction and distance ((EPA, //Local Emergency Planning Committee Guidance//, EPA 550-B-01-003, 2001.)) |
| Pandemic / Disease outbreak | **Shelter in Place** | Minimize contact; follow public health guidance |
| Power grid failure | **Shelter in Place** (short-term) / **Evacuate** (extended, extreme temps) | Duration and season are decisive |
| Nuclear / Radiological event | **Shelter in Place** initially | Get inside, stay inside, stay tuned — the "3 Ss" ((FEMA, //Nuclear Explosion//,  Ready.gov, 2022.)) |
| Home or Building fire | **Evacuate immediately** Grab bags and out | No exceptions — never re-enter a burning structure. You likely have no control of how a fire starts (a neighbor) or how it is controlled |

-----

===== The Decision Framework =====

Use this structured framework to evaluate your situation. Think of it as a **mental checklist** to work through when an emergency develops.

==== Step 1: Identify the Threat ====

Ask yourself:
  * What type of emergency is this?
  * Where is it now, and where is it moving?
  * How fast is it developing?
  * What is the official guidance from authorities?

<note tip>
**Time is your most critical variable.** A slow-developing storm gives you hours to decide. A flash flood or fast-moving wildfire may give you minutes. Always err toward acting //earlier// than feels necessary.
</note>

==== Step 2: Assess Your Home's Suitability ====

Ask yourself:
  * Is my home structurally sound?
  * Is it in a flood zone, fire interface zone, or storm surge area?
  * Does it have a safe interior room (for tornadoes)?
  * Can it be sealed against air contamination (for chemical events)?
  * Do I have adequate supplies to shelter for the expected duration?

==== Step 3: Assess Your Evacuation Viability ====

Ask yourself:
  * Do I have a vehicle with fuel?
  * Are roads open and passable?
  * Do I have a destination?
  * Can all members of my household travel?
  * Can I leave within the next 30 minutes if needed?

==== Step 4: Weigh the Relative Risks ====

<note warning>
**Avoid the "it won't happen to me" bias.** Research consistently shows that people underestimate threats to their own home and overestimate their ability to manage an emergency in place. ((Lindell, M.K. & Perry, R.W., //Communicating Environmental Risk in Multiethnic Communities//, Sage Publications, 2004.)) When in doubt, follow official evacuation orders — they exist for a reason.
</note>

Build a simple comparison:

^ Factor ^ Stay Score (1-5) ^ Go Score (1-5) ^
| Home is in the threat's direct path | Low | High |
| Official evacuation order issued | Low | High |
| Roads are open | Neutral | High |
| Have a safe destination | Neutral | High |
| Household has mobility limitations | High | Low |
| Supplies available at home | High | Low |
| Threat is fast-moving | Low | High |

Tally informally. The direction of the score guides your decision.

==== Step 5: Decide — and Commit ====

Once you decide, **act decisively**. Hesitation and reversal mid-evacuation (e.g., turning back into a wildfire) cause unnecessary deaths. If you decide to stay, commit to staying. If you decide to go, go now and do not return until authorities declare it safe.

-----

===== Factors to Evaluate =====

==== The Threat Itself ====

  * **Direction of movement** — Is the threat moving toward you or away?
  * **Speed of development** — Hours, minutes, or seconds?
  * **Duration** — Is this a 2-hour storm or a week-long siege?
  * **Official warnings** — Is there a Watch, Warning, or mandatory Order in effect?

==== Your Location ====

  * Flood zone designation (FEMA flood maps are publicly available ((FEMA Flood Map Service Center: https://msc.fema.gov)))
  * Proximity to wildland-urban interface
  * Elevation relative to rivers, coast, or water bodies
  * Distance from hazardous facilities (chemical plants, nuclear sites)
  * Urban density — does it trap you or protect you?

==== Your Home ====

  * Construction type (wood frame burns; masonry resists wind better)
  * Age and structural integrity
  * Basement availability (tornado protection)
  * Upper floors (flood protection)
  * Ability to seal windows and doors

==== Your Resources ====

  * **Food and water**: Do you have 72 hours? 2 weeks? ((Red Cross recommends a minimum of 72 hours; FEMA recommends up to 2 weeks for extended emergencies. //Ready.gov//, 2023.))
  * **Medications**: Enough for the expected duration, plus buffer?
  * **Communications**: Battery radio, charged phone, backup power?
  * **Fuel**: Vehicle fueled? Generator fueled?
  * **Cash**: ATMs and card readers fail in power outages

==== Your Household ====

  * Number of people and their ages
  * Mobility limitations or medical needs
  * Pets and livestock ((Many people die in evacuations because they refuse to leave pets. Plan for pets in advance. ((Fritz Institute, //Hurricane Katrina: Perceptions of the Affected//, 2006.))))
  * Infants requiring special equipment or formula
  * Language barriers that affect receiving information

-----

===== If You Stay: Sheltering in Place =====

Deciding to stay is not passive. It requires active preparation.

==== The Stay Kit ====

Assemble and maintain the following:

^ Category ^ Minimum ^ Recommended ^
| Water | 1 gallon/person/day × 3 days | 1 gallon/person/day × 14 days |
| Food | 3-day non-perishable supply | 2-week supply, manual can opener |
| Medications | Current prescriptions × 7 days | 30-day supply |
| First Aid | Basic kit | Comprehensive kit with manual |
| Communications | Battery-powered AM/FM radio | NOAA weather radio + hand-crank backup |
| Light | Flashlights + batteries | Headlamps, lanterns, candles (with caution) |
| Power | Spare batteries | Portable battery bank, generator |
| Warmth | Extra blankets | Sleeping bags rated for outdoor temps |
| Sanitation | Basic supplies | Bucket toilet, waste bags if water fails |
| Documents | Copies of IDs | Waterproof bag with originals + digital backup |

==== Shelter Rooms by Threat ====

  * **Tornado**: Lowest floor, interior room, away from windows — bathroom or closet
  * **Chemical/Hazmat**: Interior room, highest floor (most chemicals are heavier than air), seal gaps with tape and plastic sheeting
  * **Nuclear/Radiological**: Interior room, most mass between you and outside — basement preferred; brick/concrete better than wood
  * **Civil Unrest**: Interior room away from street-facing windows; lights out at night

==== During a Shelter-in-Place ====

  - Close and lock all windows and doors
  - Turn off HVAC, fans, and ventilation if chemical threat
  - Monitor official channels continuously
  - Ration supplies conservatively — you may be there longer than expected
  - Keep a log of time and events
  - Signal your status to family/friends via pre-arranged check-in

<note>
**The "shelter in place" order is temporary.** Authorities will issue an "all clear" when it is safe to ventilate and move freely. Do not self-release early based on silence or apparent calm outside.
</note>

-----

===== If You Go: Evacuation Planning =====

==== Plan Before You Need It ====

The worst time to plan an evacuation is during one. Build your plan now:

  - **Identify your destination(s)**: At least two options — a nearby friend/family location, and a further fallback. Know the address and route for each.
  - **Establish multiple routes**: Know at least two ways out of your neighborhood and two ways to your destination.
  - **Designate an out-of-area contact**: Someone outside your region who can relay messages between separated family members. ((Red Cross, //Emergency Preparedness for Families//, American Red Cross, 2022.))
  - **Plan for your pets**: Identify pet-friendly shelters or hotels along your route in advance.
  - **Practice**: Drive your routes. Know where gas stations are. Know where traffic bottlenecks occur.

==== The Go Bag ====

A pre-packed bag that you can grab in under 2 minutes. Maintain it year-round.

^ Item ^ Notes ^
| Water | 1 liter per person minimum for the road |
| Food | High-calorie, non-perishable bars or snacks |
| Documents | Passports, IDs, insurance cards, medical records — waterproof bag |
| Cash | Small bills; ATMs will be unavailable |
| Medications | 7-day supply minimum |
| Phone charger + power bank | Fully charged at all times |
| Change of clothes | Weather-appropriate |
| First aid kit | Compact version |
| Flashlight + batteries | Headlamp preferred |
| Radio | Battery or hand-crank |
| Keys | Spare car and house keys |
| Pet supplies | Food, leash, health and vaccination records |
| Children's needs | Formula, diapers, comfort items |
| N95 masks | Wildfire smoke, disease, dust |
| Whistle | Signal for help if trapped |

<note tip>
**Keep your go bag by the door, not in a closet.** The average successful evacuation of a wildfire takes under 5 minutes of preparation time when people have bags ready. ((CAL FIRE, //Public Education: Go Bag Guidance//, 2021.))
</note>

==== Timing Your Departure ====

  * **Voluntary evacuation order**: Go now. Don't wait for mandatory.
  * **Mandatory evacuation order**: You are already late. Leave immediately.
  * **No order, but threat is approaching**: Use your framework. If in doubt, go early.

<note warning>
**The Katrina lesson:** Over 1,800 people died in Hurricane Katrina. The majority of deaths were among people who delayed evacuation or could not evacuate. ((Brunkard, J. et al., "Hurricane Katrina Deaths, Louisiana, 2005," //Disaster Medicine and Public Health Preparedness//, 2008.)) Mandatory orders are not suggestions.
</note>

==== On the Road ====

  - **Fill your tank before you leave** — do not rely on finding fuel en route
  - **Tell someone your route and destination**
  - **Monitor traffic and road closures** via radio
  - **Have paper maps** as a backup to GPS (cell service fails)
  - **Stay on designated evacuation routes** — shortcuts can dead-end
  - **Never drive through floodwater** — 6 inches can knock you down; 12 inches can float a car ((NOAA, //Turn Around Don't Drown Campaign//, National Weather Service, 2023.))
  - **Keep fuel above half a tank** as a general life habit during emergency season

==== At Your Destination ====

  - Register with local emergency management if going to a public shelter
  - Notify your out-of-area contact that you have arrived
  - Do not return home until authorities explicitly declare it safe
  - Document any damage with photographs before touching anything (insurance)

-----

===== Special Populations =====

<note important>
Standard emergency plans assume able-bodied, mobile adults. If your household includes any of the following, your plan must account for additional needs — and you should register with local emergency management **before** a disaster strikes.
</note>

==== Elderly or Mobility-Impaired ====
  * Identify neighbors or community members who can assist with evacuation
  * Contact local emergency management to be added to assisted-evacuation registries
  * Ensure medications, mobility devices (wheelchair, walker), and medical equipment are in the go bag or can be quickly loaded
  * Plan for longer departure time

==== Infants and Young Children ====
  * Maintain a dedicated bag with formula, diapers, comfort items
  * Carry current copies of vaccination and medical records
  * Plan rest stops for long evacuations

==== Pets and Animals ====
  * **Never leave pets behind** if avoidable — it leads to people returning into danger
  * Identify pet-friendly shelters in advance (not all public shelters accept animals)
  * Carry vaccination records, food, water, crates, and medications
  * Microchip and tag all animals

==== People with Medical Dependencies ====
  * Oxygen, dialysis, insulin, or powered medical devices require extra planning
  * Contact your utility company — many maintain medical priority lists for outage response
  * Know the location of the nearest hospital along your evacuation route

==== People Without Vehicles ====
  * Know your local emergency transportation assistance program
  * Coordinate with neighbors in advance
  * Know the location of public shelter pickup points

-----

===== Communications and Information =====

==== Receiving Information ====

^ Source ^ Best For ^ Limitation ^
| NOAA Weather Radio | All-hazards alerts, 24/7 | Weather-focused |
| Emergency Alert System (TV/Radio) | Broad emergency orders | Requires power |
| Wireless Emergency Alerts (phone) | Immediate local alerts | Requires cell service |
| Local government website / social media | Official orders | Requires internet |
| Neighbors and community networks | Real-time local intel | Accuracy varies |

<note>
**A battery-powered or hand-crank NOAA weather radio is essential.** It operates when power, internet, and cell service are all down — the exact conditions under which you need it most.
</note>

==== Family Communication Plan ====

Establish these in advance:
  - One **local contact** (nearby family or friend)
  - One **out-of-area contact** (in a different region, unaffected by the same disaster)
  - A **meeting point** near your home if you cannot communicate
  - A **secondary meeting point** farther away
  - Agreement on a **check-in schedule** (e.g., every 6 hours)
  - All family members memorize at least two phone numbers

==== When Cell Networks Fail ====

  * Text messages often get through when voice calls do not (smaller data packets)
  * Social media check-ins (Facebook Safety Check, etc.) can relay status
  * Ham radio operators provide community communication infrastructure ((ARRL, //Amateur Radio Emergency Service//, American Radio Relay League, 2023.))
  * Pre-arranged signals (e.g., a note on the door, a mark on a mailbox) for in-person communication

-----

===== After the Emergency =====

The emergency is not over when the immediate threat passes. The return and recovery phase carries its own risks.

==== Before Returning Home ====

  * Wait for official all-clear from authorities
  * Check road and bridge conditions
  * Do not enter if you smell gas, see structural damage, or water is still present

==== Inspecting Your Home ====

<note warning>
**Do not use open flames** (candles, lighters) when re-entering after a flood, earthquake, or explosion until you have confirmed there are no gas leaks.
</note>

  - Check for structural damage before entering
  - Look for gas leaks (smell), water damage, electrical hazards
  - Document everything with photos and video before cleanup
  - Contact your insurance company promptly
  - Do not eat food that has been above 40°F (4°C) for more than 2 hours ((USDA Food Safety and Inspection Service, //Food Safety in a Disaster or Emergency//, 2022.))

==== Psychological Recovery ====

Emergencies are traumatic. It is normal to experience:
  * Anxiety, difficulty sleeping, irritability
  * Replaying events mentally
  * Reluctance to return to normalcy

<note tip>
**Reconnect with community.** Recovery research consistently shows that social connection is the strongest predictor of psychological resilience after a disaster. ((Norris, F.H. et al., "60,000 Disaster Victims Speak," //Psychiatry//, 2002.)) Do not isolate.
</note>

If symptoms persist beyond a few weeks, seek support from a mental health professional familiar with trauma.

==== Update Your Plan ====

After every emergency — even a near-miss — review and update:
  * What worked in your plan?
  * What did you wish you had?
  * What would you do differently?
  * Does your go bag need restocking?
  * Are your documents still current?

-----

===== Quick Reference Card =====

//Print this section and keep it with your go bag.//

**Stay if:**
  * Tornado is imminent (no time to evacuate)
  * Blizzard has closed roads
  * Chemical plume is not in your direction
  * No official evacuation order; home is structurally sound; you have 2+ weeks of supplies

**Go if:**
  * Mandatory evacuation order is issued
  * You are in a flood zone and rain is heavy
  * Wildfire is within 5 miles and wind is toward you
  * You smell gas, see structural damage, or have no safe room
  * You have a medical need that cannot be met at home

**Go Bag Location:** ___________________________

**Destination 1:** ___________________________

**Destination 2:** ___________________________

**Out-of-area contact:** ___________________________

**Local emergency management:** ___________________________

**Fuel level rule:** Never below ½ tank during emergency season

-----

===== References =====

  - FEMA. (2004). //Are You Ready? An In-Depth Guide to Citizen Preparedness//. FEMA B-526. Washington, D.C.
  - FEMA. (2022). //Nuclear Explosion//. Ready.gov. https://www.ready.gov/nuclear-explosion
  - FEMA Flood Map Service Center. https://msc.fema.gov
  - National Hurricane Center. (2023). //Tropical Cyclone Climatology//. NOAA. https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/climo/
  - Cal Fire. (2019). //After Action Reports: Camp Fire//. California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection.
  - Cal Fire. (2021). //Public Education: Go Bag Guidance//. California Department of Forestry.
  - EPA. (2001). //Local Emergency Planning Committee Guidance//. EPA 550-B-01-003.
  - DHS. (2020). //Civil Unrest Preparedness for Households//. Department of Homeland Security.
  - American Red Cross. (2022). //Emergency Preparedness for Families//. Washington, D.C.
  - NOAA National Weather Service. (2023). //Turn Around Don't Drown Campaign//. https://www.weather.gov/safety/flood-turn-around-dont-drown
  - ARRL. (2023). //Amateur Radio Emergency Service//. American Radio Relay League.
  - Brunkard, J., Namulanda, G., & Ratard, R. (2008). Hurricane Katrina Deaths, Louisiana, 2005. //Disaster Medicine and Public Health Preparedness//, 2(4), 215–223.
  - Fritz Institute. (2006). //Hurricane Katrina: Perceptions of the Affected//. San Francisco, CA.
  - Lindell, M.K. & Perry, R.W. (2004). //Communicating Environmental Risk in Multiethnic Communities//. Sage Publications.
  - Norris, F.H. et al. (2002). 60,000 Disaster Victims Speak: Part I. //Psychiatry//, 65(3), 207–239.
  - USDA Food Safety and Inspection Service. (2022). //Food Safety in a Disaster or Emergency//. https://www.fsis.usda.gov/food-safety/safe-food-handling-and-preparation/food-safety-basics/food-safety-emergencies
  - The Clash. (1982). "Should I Stay or Should I Go." //Combat Rock//. CBS Records.

-----

//Last reviewed: March 2026 — Review annually or after any emergency event.//

//This guide is for general preparedness education. Always follow official instructions from local emergency management authorities, who have access to real-time threat information.//