Should I Stay or Should I Go?
A Practical Guide to Emergency Decision-Making
“Should I Stay or Should I Go?
“If I go, there will be trouble
“And if I stay it will be double.”
— The Clash, 1982
1)
This guide helps you make one of the most critical decisions in any emergency: whether to shelter in place or evacuate. This decision must be correctly — and making it early — can save your life and the lives of those around you.
Table of Contents
The Core Decision
The stay-or-go decision is rarely made in a calm, well-lit room with plenty of time. More often, it happens under stress, with incomplete information, possibly at night, and with dependents relying on you. This is why the decision must be planned in advance, not improvised in the moment. 2)
The Golden Rule of Emergency Decision-Making: A plan made today, even an imperfect one, is worth more than a perfect plan made under duress tomorrow. Prepare your decision criteria now, before you need them.
The two options are:
| Option | Definition | Core Risk |
| Shelter in Place | Remain in your home or current location, using it as a protective barrier | Being trapped, cut off, or overwhelmed if the threat reaches or surrounds you |
| Evacuate | Leave the area entirely, moving to a pre-determined safer location | Being caught in the open, on clogged roads, or unprepared away from home |
Neither option is universally correct. The right choice depends on the nature of the threat, your location, your resources, and your personal circumstances.
Types of Emergencies
Different emergencies have different default postures. Understanding the type of emergency is the first step in your decision.
Weather Emergencies
| Emergency | Default Posture | Notes |
| Hurricane / Typhoon | Evacuate (if in flood zone or Zone A/B) | Storm surge is the leading killer; distance from coast matters enormously 3) |
| Tornado | Shelter in Place | No time to evacuate; go to lowest interior room immediately |
| Blizzard / Ice Storm | Shelter in Place | Roads become impassable; home is safer than car |
| Wildfire | Evacuate early | The single greatest mistake is waiting too long 4) |
| Flash Flood | Evacuate immediately | Never shelter in a flood-prone structure; never drive through floodwater |
| Earthquake | Shelter in Place (during), assess after | Drop/Cover/Hold On during; then assess structural damage |
| Extreme Heat | Shelter in Place (with cooling) or go to cooling center | Power outage changes this calculus dramatically |
Social Unrest / Civil Emergency
Social unrest, civil disturbance, or breakdown of civil order presents a more complex decision matrix because the threat is mobile and unpredictable. 5)
In cases of civil unrest, your home's defendability, your neighborhood's vulnerability, and your ability to remain inconspicuous are all relevant factors. A quiet rural home and a ground-floor urban apartment present very different risk profiles.
Stay if: Your home is secure, you have supplies, the unrest is localized elsewhere, travel routes are dangerous
Go if: Unrest is in your immediate area, authorities order evacuation, your home is not defensible, you have a secure destination
Other Emergencies
| Emergency | Default Posture | Key Factor |
| Chemical / Hazmat spill | Shelter in Place or Evacuate | Depends entirely on wind direction and distance 6) |
| Pandemic / Disease outbreak | Shelter in Place | Minimize contact; follow public health guidance |
| Power grid failure | Shelter in Place (short-term) / Evacuate (extended, extreme temps) | Duration and season are decisive |
| Nuclear / Radiological event | Shelter in Place initially | Get inside, stay inside, stay tuned — the “3 Ss” 7) |
| Home or Building fire | Evacuate immediately Grab bags and out | No exceptions — never re-enter a burning structure. You likely have no control of how a fire starts (a neighbor) or how it is controlled |
The Decision Framework
Use this structured framework to evaluate your situation. Think of it as a mental checklist to work through when an emergency develops.
Step 1: Identify the Threat
Ask yourself:
What type of emergency is this?
Where is it now, and where is it moving?
How fast is it developing?
What is the official guidance from authorities?
Time is your most critical variable. A slow-developing storm gives you hours to decide. A flash flood or fast-moving wildfire may give you minutes. Always err toward acting earlier than feels necessary.
Step 2: Assess Your Home's Suitability
Ask yourself:
Is my home structurally sound?
Is it in a flood zone, fire interface zone, or storm surge area?
Does it have a safe interior room (for tornadoes)?
Can it be sealed against air contamination (for chemical events)?
Do I have adequate supplies to shelter for the expected duration?
Step 3: Assess Your Evacuation Viability
Ask yourself:
Do I have a vehicle with fuel?
Are roads open and passable?
Do I have a destination?
Can all members of my household travel?
Can I leave within the next 30 minutes if needed?
Step 4: Weigh the Relative Risks
Avoid the “it won't happen to me” bias. Research consistently shows that people underestimate threats to their own home and overestimate their ability to manage an emergency in place.
8) When in doubt, follow official evacuation orders — they exist for a reason.
Build a simple comparison:
| Factor | Stay Score (1-5) | Go Score (1-5) |
| Home is in the threat's direct path | Low | High |
| Official evacuation order issued | Low | High |
| Roads are open | Neutral | High |
| Have a safe destination | Neutral | High |
| Household has mobility limitations | High | Low |
| Supplies available at home | High | Low |
| Threat is fast-moving | Low | High |
Tally informally. The direction of the score guides your decision.
Step 5: Decide — and Commit
Once you decide, act decisively. Hesitation and reversal mid-evacuation (e.g., turning back into a wildfire) cause unnecessary deaths. If you decide to stay, commit to staying. If you decide to go, go now and do not return until authorities declare it safe.
Factors to Evaluate
The Threat Itself
Direction of movement — Is the threat moving toward you or away?
Speed of development — Hours, minutes, or seconds?
Duration — Is this a 2-hour storm or a week-long siege?
Official warnings — Is there a Watch, Warning, or mandatory Order in effect?
Your Location
Flood zone designation (FEMA flood maps are publicly available
9))
Proximity to wildland-urban interface
Elevation relative to rivers, coast, or water bodies
Distance from hazardous facilities (chemical plants, nuclear sites)
Urban density — does it trap you or protect you?
Your Home
Construction type (wood frame burns; masonry resists wind better)
Age and structural integrity
Basement availability (tornado protection)
Upper floors (flood protection)
Ability to seal windows and doors
Your Resources
Food and water: Do you have 72 hours? 2 weeks?
10)
Medications: Enough for the expected duration, plus buffer?
Communications: Battery radio, charged phone, backup power?
Fuel: Vehicle fueled? Generator fueled?
Cash: ATMs and card readers fail in power outages
Your Household
Number of people and their ages
Mobility limitations or medical needs
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Infants requiring special equipment or formula
Language barriers that affect receiving information
If You Stay: Sheltering in Place
Deciding to stay is not passive. It requires active preparation.
The Stay Kit
Assemble and maintain the following:
| Category | Minimum | Recommended |
| Water | 1 gallon/person/day × 3 days | 1 gallon/person/day × 14 days |
| Food | 3-day non-perishable supply | 2-week supply, manual can opener |
| Medications | Current prescriptions × 7 days | 30-day supply |
| First Aid | Basic kit | Comprehensive kit with manual |
| Communications | Battery-powered AM/FM radio | NOAA weather radio + hand-crank backup |
| Light | Flashlights + batteries | Headlamps, lanterns, candles (with caution) |
| Power | Spare batteries | Portable battery bank, generator |
| Warmth | Extra blankets | Sleeping bags rated for outdoor temps |
| Sanitation | Basic supplies | Bucket toilet, waste bags if water fails |
| Documents | Copies of IDs | Waterproof bag with originals + digital backup |
Shelter Rooms by Threat
Tornado: Lowest floor, interior room, away from windows — bathroom or closet
Chemical/Hazmat: Interior room, highest floor (most chemicals are heavier than air), seal gaps with tape and plastic sheeting
Nuclear/Radiological: Interior room, most mass between you and outside — basement preferred; brick/concrete better than wood
Civil Unrest: Interior room away from street-facing windows; lights out at night
During a Shelter-in-Place
Close and lock all windows and doors
Turn off HVAC, fans, and ventilation if chemical threat
Monitor official channels continuously
Ration supplies conservatively — you may be there longer than expected
Keep a log of time and events
Signal your status to family/friends via pre-arranged check-in
The “shelter in place” order is temporary. Authorities will issue an “all clear” when it is safe to ventilate and move freely. Do not self-release early based on silence or apparent calm outside.
If You Go: Evacuation Planning
Plan Before You Need It
The worst time to plan an evacuation is during one. Build your plan now:
Identify your destination(s): At least two options — a nearby friend/family location, and a further fallback. Know the address and route for each.
Establish multiple routes: Know at least two ways out of your neighborhood and two ways to your destination.
Designate an out-of-area contact: Someone outside your region who can relay messages between separated family members.
12)
Plan for your pets: Identify pet-friendly shelters or hotels along your route in advance.
Practice: Drive your routes. Know where gas stations are. Know where traffic bottlenecks occur.
The Go Bag
A pre-packed bag that you can grab in under 2 minutes. Maintain it year-round.
| Item | Notes |
| Water | 1 liter per person minimum for the road |
| Food | High-calorie, non-perishable bars or snacks |
| Documents | Passports, IDs, insurance cards, medical records — waterproof bag |
| Cash | Small bills; ATMs will be unavailable |
| Medications | 7-day supply minimum |
| Phone charger + power bank | Fully charged at all times |
| Change of clothes | Weather-appropriate |
| First aid kit | Compact version |
| Flashlight + batteries | Headlamp preferred |
| Radio | Battery or hand-crank |
| Keys | Spare car and house keys |
| Pet supplies | Food, leash, health and vaccination records |
| Children's needs | Formula, diapers, comfort items |
| N95 masks | Wildfire smoke, disease, dust |
| Whistle | Signal for help if trapped |
Keep your go bag by the door, not in a closet. The average successful evacuation of a wildfire takes under 5 minutes of preparation time when people have bags ready.
13)
Timing Your Departure
Voluntary evacuation order: Go now. Don't wait for mandatory.
Mandatory evacuation order: You are already late. Leave immediately.
No order, but threat is approaching: Use your framework. If in doubt, go early.
The Katrina lesson: Over 1,800 people died in Hurricane Katrina. The majority of deaths were among people who delayed evacuation or could not evacuate.
14) Mandatory orders are not suggestions.
On the Road
Fill your tank before you leave — do not rely on finding fuel en route
Tell someone your route and destination
Monitor traffic and road closures via radio
Have paper maps as a backup to GPS (cell service fails)
Stay on designated evacuation routes — shortcuts can dead-end
Never drive through floodwater — 6 inches can knock you down; 12 inches can float a car
15)
Keep fuel above half a tank as a general life habit during emergency season
At Your Destination
Register with local emergency management if going to a public shelter
Notify your out-of-area contact that you have arrived
Do not return home until authorities explicitly declare it safe
Document any damage with photographs before touching anything (insurance)
Special Populations
Standard emergency plans assume able-bodied, mobile adults. If your household includes any of the following, your plan must account for additional needs — and you should register with local emergency management before a disaster strikes.
Elderly or Mobility-Impaired
Identify neighbors or community members who can assist with evacuation
Contact local emergency management to be added to assisted-evacuation registries
Ensure medications, mobility devices (wheelchair, walker), and medical equipment are in the go bag or can be quickly loaded
Plan for longer departure time
Infants and Young Children
Maintain a dedicated bag with formula, diapers, comfort items
Carry current copies of vaccination and medical records
Plan rest stops for long evacuations
Pets and Animals
Never leave pets behind if avoidable — it leads to people returning into danger
Identify pet-friendly shelters in advance (not all public shelters accept animals)
Carry vaccination records, food, water, crates, and medications
Microchip and tag all animals
People with Medical Dependencies
Oxygen, dialysis, insulin, or powered medical devices require extra planning
Contact your utility company — many maintain medical priority lists for outage response
Know the location of the nearest hospital along your evacuation route
People Without Vehicles
Know your local emergency transportation assistance program
Coordinate with neighbors in advance
Know the location of public shelter pickup points
| Source | Best For | Limitation |
| NOAA Weather Radio | All-hazards alerts, 24/7 | Weather-focused |
| Emergency Alert System (TV/Radio) | Broad emergency orders | Requires power |
| Wireless Emergency Alerts (phone) | Immediate local alerts | Requires cell service |
| Local government website / social media | Official orders | Requires internet |
| Neighbors and community networks | Real-time local intel | Accuracy varies |
A battery-powered or hand-crank NOAA weather radio is essential. It operates when power, internet, and cell service are all down — the exact conditions under which you need it most.
Family Communication Plan
Establish these in advance:
One local contact (nearby family or friend)
One out-of-area contact (in a different region, unaffected by the same disaster)
A meeting point near your home if you cannot communicate
A secondary meeting point farther away
Agreement on a check-in schedule (e.g., every 6 hours)
All family members memorize at least two phone numbers
When Cell Networks Fail
Text messages often get through when voice calls do not (smaller data packets)
Social media check-ins (Facebook Safety Check, etc.) can relay status
Ham radio operators provide community communication infrastructure
16) Pre-arranged signals (e.g., a note on the door, a mark on a mailbox) for in-person communication
After the Emergency
The emergency is not over when the immediate threat passes. The return and recovery phase carries its own risks.
Before Returning Home
Wait for official all-clear from authorities
Check road and bridge conditions
Do not enter if you smell gas, see structural damage, or water is still present
Inspecting Your Home
Do not use open flames (candles, lighters) when re-entering after a flood, earthquake, or explosion until you have confirmed there are no gas leaks.
Check for structural damage before entering
Look for gas leaks (smell), water damage, electrical hazards
Document everything with photos and video before cleanup
Contact your insurance company promptly
Do not eat food that has been above 40°F (4°C) for more than 2 hours
17)
Psychological Recovery
Emergencies are traumatic. It is normal to experience:
Anxiety, difficulty sleeping, irritability
Replaying events mentally
Reluctance to return to normalcy
Reconnect with community. Recovery research consistently shows that social connection is the strongest predictor of psychological resilience after a disaster.
18) Do not isolate.
If symptoms persist beyond a few weeks, seek support from a mental health professional familiar with trauma.
Update Your Plan
After every emergency — even a near-miss — review and update:
What worked in your plan?
What did you wish you had?
What would you do differently?
Does your go bag need restocking?
Are your documents still current?
Quick Reference Card
Print this section and keep it with your go bag.
Stay if:
Tornado is imminent (no time to evacuate)
Blizzard has closed roads
Chemical plume is not in your direction
No official evacuation order; home is structurally sound; you have 2+ weeks of supplies
Go if:
Mandatory evacuation order is issued
You are in a flood zone and rain is heavy
Wildfire is within 5 miles and wind is toward you
You smell gas, see structural damage, or have no safe room
You have a medical need that cannot be met at home
Go Bag Location: _
Destination 1: _
Destination 2: _
Out-of-area contact: _
Local emergency management: ___
Fuel level rule: Never below ½ tank during emergency season
References
FEMA. (2004). Are You Ready? An In-Depth Guide to Citizen Preparedness. FEMA B-526. Washington, D.C.
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Cal Fire. (2019). After Action Reports: Camp Fire. California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection.
Cal Fire. (2021). Public Education: Go Bag Guidance. California Department of Forestry.
EPA. (2001). Local Emergency Planning Committee Guidance. EPA 550-B-01-003.
DHS. (2020). Civil Unrest Preparedness for Households. Department of Homeland Security.
American Red Cross. (2022). Emergency Preparedness for Families. Washington, D.C.
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ARRL. (2023). Amateur Radio Emergency Service. American Radio Relay League.
Brunkard, J., Namulanda, G., & Ratard, R. (2008). Hurricane Katrina Deaths, Louisiana, 2005. Disaster Medicine and Public Health Preparedness, 2(4), 215–223.
Fritz Institute. (2006). Hurricane Katrina: Perceptions of the Affected. San Francisco, CA.
Lindell, M.K. & Perry, R.W. (2004). Communicating Environmental Risk in Multiethnic Communities. Sage Publications.
Norris, F.H. et al. (2002). 60,000 Disaster Victims Speak: Part I. Psychiatry, 65(3), 207–239.
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The Clash. (1982). “Should I Stay or Should I Go.” Combat Rock. CBS Records.
Last reviewed: March 2026 — Review annually or after any emergency event.
This guide is for general preparedness education. Always follow official instructions from local emergency management authorities, who have access to real-time threat information.