A Practical Guide to Emergency Decision-Making

“Should I Stay or Should I Go?
“If I go, there will be trouble
“And if I stay it will be double.”
— The Clash, 1982 ¹⁾

This guide helps you make one of the most critical decisions in any emergency: whether to shelter in place or evacuate. This decision must be correctly — and making it early — can save your life and the lives of those around you.

1. The Core Decision
2. Types of Emergencies
3. The Decision Framework
4. Factors to Evaluate
5. If You Stay: Sheltering in Place
6. If You Go: Evacuation Planning
7. Special Populations
8. Communications and Information
9. After the Emergency
10. References

The stay-or-go decision is rarely made in a calm, well-lit room with plenty of time. More often, it happens under stress, with incomplete information, possibly at night, and with dependents relying on you. This is why the decision must be planned in advance, not improvised in the moment. ²⁾

The two options are:

Neither option is universally correct. The right choice depends on the nature of the threat, your location, your resources, and your personal circumstances.

Different emergencies have different default postures. Understanding the type of emergency is the first step in your decision.

Social unrest, civil disturbance, or breakdown of civil order presents a more complex decision matrix because the threat is mobile and unpredictable. ⁵⁾

• Stay if: Your home is secure, you have supplies, the unrest is localized elsewhere, travel routes are dangerous
• Go if: Unrest is in your immediate area, authorities order evacuation, your home is not defensible, you have a secure destination

Use this structured framework to evaluate your situation. Think of it as a mental checklist to work through when an emergency develops.

Ask yourself:

• What type of emergency is this?
• Where is it now, and where is it moving?
• How fast is it developing?
• What is the official guidance from authorities?

Ask yourself:

• Is my home structurally sound?
• Is it in a flood zone, fire interface zone, or storm surge area?
• Does it have a safe interior room (for tornadoes)?
• Can it be sealed against air contamination (for chemical events)?
• Do I have adequate supplies to shelter for the expected duration?

Ask yourself:

• Do I have a vehicle with fuel?
• Are roads open and passable?
• Do I have a destination?
• Can all members of my household travel?
• Can I leave within the next 30 minutes if needed?

Build a simple comparison:

Tally informally. The direction of the score guides your decision.

Once you decide, act decisively. Hesitation and reversal mid-evacuation (e.g., turning back into a wildfire) cause unnecessary deaths. If you decide to stay, commit to staying. If you decide to go, go now and do not return until authorities declare it safe.

• Direction of movement — Is the threat moving toward you or away?
• Speed of development — Hours, minutes, or seconds?
• Duration — Is this a 2-hour storm or a week-long siege?
• Official warnings — Is there a Watch, Warning, or mandatory Order in effect?

• Flood zone designation (FEMA flood maps are publicly available ⁹⁾)
• Proximity to wildland-urban interface
• Elevation relative to rivers, coast, or water bodies
• Distance from hazardous facilities (chemical plants, nuclear sites)
• Urban density — does it trap you or protect you?

• Construction type (wood frame burns; masonry resists wind better)
• Age and structural integrity
• Basement availability (tornado protection)
• Upper floors (flood protection)
• Ability to seal windows and doors

• Food and water: Do you have 72 hours? 2 weeks? ¹⁰⁾
• Medications: Enough for the expected duration, plus buffer?
• Communications: Battery radio, charged phone, backup power?
• Fuel: Vehicle fueled? Generator fueled?
• Cash: ATMs and card readers fail in power outages

• Number of people and their ages
• Mobility limitations or medical needs
• Pets and livestock ¹¹⁾))
• Infants requiring special equipment or formula
• Language barriers that affect receiving information

Deciding to stay is not passive. It requires active preparation.

Assemble and maintain the following:

• Tornado: Lowest floor, interior room, away from windows — bathroom or closet
• Chemical/Hazmat: Interior room, highest floor (most chemicals are heavier than air), seal gaps with tape and plastic sheeting
• Nuclear/Radiological: Interior room, most mass between you and outside — basement preferred; brick/concrete better than wood
• Civil Unrest: Interior room away from street-facing windows; lights out at night

1. Close and lock all windows and doors
2. Turn off HVAC, fans, and ventilation if chemical threat
3. Monitor official channels continuously
4. Ration supplies conservatively — you may be there longer than expected
5. Keep a log of time and events
6. Signal your status to family/friends via pre-arranged check-in

The worst time to plan an evacuation is during one. Build your plan now:

1. Identify your destination(s): At least two options — a nearby friend/family location, and a further fallback. Know the address and route for each.
2. Establish multiple routes: Know at least two ways out of your neighborhood and two ways to your destination.
3. Designate an out-of-area contact: Someone outside your region who can relay messages between separated family members. ¹²⁾
4. Plan for your pets: Identify pet-friendly shelters or hotels along your route in advance.
5. Practice: Drive your routes. Know where gas stations are. Know where traffic bottlenecks occur.

A pre-packed bag that you can grab in under 2 minutes. Maintain it year-round.

• Voluntary evacuation order: Go now. Don't wait for mandatory.
• Mandatory evacuation order: You are already late. Leave immediately.
• No order, but threat is approaching: Use your framework. If in doubt, go early.

1. Fill your tank before you leave — do not rely on finding fuel en route
2. Tell someone your route and destination
3. Monitor traffic and road closures via radio
4. Have paper maps as a backup to GPS (cell service fails)
5. Stay on designated evacuation routes — shortcuts can dead-end
6. Never drive through floodwater — 6 inches can knock you down; 12 inches can float a car ¹⁵⁾
7. Keep fuel above half a tank as a general life habit during emergency season

1. Register with local emergency management if going to a public shelter
2. Notify your out-of-area contact that you have arrived
3. Do not return home until authorities explicitly declare it safe
4. Document any damage with photographs before touching anything (insurance)

• Identify neighbors or community members who can assist with evacuation
• Contact local emergency management to be added to assisted-evacuation registries
• Ensure medications, mobility devices (wheelchair, walker), and medical equipment are in the go bag or can be quickly loaded
• Plan for longer departure time

• Maintain a dedicated bag with formula, diapers, comfort items
• Carry current copies of vaccination and medical records
• Plan rest stops for long evacuations

• Never leave pets behind if avoidable — it leads to people returning into danger
• Identify pet-friendly shelters in advance (not all public shelters accept animals)
• Carry vaccination records, food, water, crates, and medications
• Microchip and tag all animals

• Oxygen, dialysis, insulin, or powered medical devices require extra planning
• Contact your utility company — many maintain medical priority lists for outage response
• Know the location of the nearest hospital along your evacuation route

• Know your local emergency transportation assistance program
• Coordinate with neighbors in advance
• Know the location of public shelter pickup points

Establish these in advance:

1. One local contact (nearby family or friend)
2. One out-of-area contact (in a different region, unaffected by the same disaster)
3. A meeting point near your home if you cannot communicate
4. A secondary meeting point farther away
5. Agreement on a check-in schedule (e.g., every 6 hours)
6. All family members memorize at least two phone numbers

• Text messages often get through when voice calls do not (smaller data packets)
• Social media check-ins (Facebook Safety Check, etc.) can relay status
• Ham radio operators provide community communication infrastructure ¹⁶⁾
• Pre-arranged signals (e.g., a note on the door, a mark on a mailbox) for in-person communication

The emergency is not over when the immediate threat passes. The return and recovery phase carries its own risks.

• Wait for official all-clear from authorities
• Check road and bridge conditions
• Do not enter if you smell gas, see structural damage, or water is still present

1. Check for structural damage before entering
2. Look for gas leaks (smell), water damage, electrical hazards
3. Document everything with photos and video before cleanup
4. Contact your insurance company promptly
5. Do not eat food that has been above 40°F (4°C) for more than 2 hours ¹⁷⁾

Emergencies are traumatic. It is normal to experience:

• Anxiety, difficulty sleeping, irritability
• Replaying events mentally
• Reluctance to return to normalcy

If symptoms persist beyond a few weeks, seek support from a mental health professional familiar with trauma.

After every emergency — even a near-miss — review and update:

• What worked in your plan?
• What did you wish you had?
• What would you do differently?
• Does your go bag need restocking?
• Are your documents still current?

Print this section and keep it with your go bag.

Stay if:

• Tornado is imminent (no time to evacuate)
• Blizzard has closed roads
• Chemical plume is not in your direction
• No official evacuation order; home is structurally sound; you have 2+ weeks of supplies

Go if:

• Mandatory evacuation order is issued
• You are in a flood zone and rain is heavy
• Wildfire is within 5 miles and wind is toward you
• You smell gas, see structural damage, or have no safe room
• You have a medical need that cannot be met at home

Go Bag Location: _ Destination 1: _

Destination 2: _ Out-of-area contact: _

Local emergency management: ___

Fuel level rule: Never below ½ tank during emergency season

1. FEMA. (2004). Are You Ready? An In-Depth Guide to Citizen Preparedness. FEMA B-526. Washington, D.C.
2. FEMA. (2022). Nuclear Explosion. Ready.gov. https://www.ready.gov/nuclear-explosion
3. FEMA Flood Map Service Center. https://msc.fema.gov
4. National Hurricane Center. (2023). Tropical Cyclone Climatology. NOAA. https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/climo/
5. Cal Fire. (2019). After Action Reports: Camp Fire. California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection.
6. Cal Fire. (2021). Public Education: Go Bag Guidance. California Department of Forestry.
7. EPA. (2001). Local Emergency Planning Committee Guidance. EPA 550-B-01-003.
8. DHS. (2020). Civil Unrest Preparedness for Households. Department of Homeland Security.
9. American Red Cross. (2022). Emergency Preparedness for Families. Washington, D.C.
10. NOAA National Weather Service. (2023). Turn Around Don't Drown Campaign. https://www.weather.gov/safety/flood-turn-around-dont-drown
11. ARRL. (2023). Amateur Radio Emergency Service. American Radio Relay League.
12. Brunkard, J., Namulanda, G., & Ratard, R. (2008). Hurricane Katrina Deaths, Louisiana, 2005. Disaster Medicine and Public Health Preparedness, 2(4), 215–223.
13. Fritz Institute. (2006). Hurricane Katrina: Perceptions of the Affected. San Francisco, CA.
14. Lindell, M.K. & Perry, R.W. (2004). Communicating Environmental Risk in Multiethnic Communities. Sage Publications.
15. Norris, F.H. et al. (2002). 60,000 Disaster Victims Speak: Part I. Psychiatry, 65(3), 207–239.
16. USDA Food Safety and Inspection Service. (2022). Food Safety in a Disaster or Emergency. https://www.fsis.usda.gov/food-safety/safe-food-handling-and-preparation/food-safety-basics/food-safety-emergencies
17. The Clash. (1982). “Should I Stay or Should I Go.” Combat Rock. CBS Records.

Last reviewed: March 2026 — Review annually or after any emergency event.

This guide is for general preparedness education. Always follow official instructions from local emergency management authorities, who have access to real-time threat information.